Published by AstroAwani & BusinessToday, image by BusinessToday.
The current mass and genocidal slaughter of the Alawite and Christian minorities in Syria by elements of the so-called “interim” or “transitional government” which is in the grip of the HTS (Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham) terrorist outfit under Ahmed Al-Sharaa who’s better known by his moniker – Mohammed Al-Golani – embodies the atrocious and horrifying reality of the regime’s nature.
The morphing and transmogrification of HTS into the central institution of the Syrian state can only have been made possible by:
- the long-term/long-range strategic project and conspiracy of the Zionist entity (e.g., Yinon Plan);
- the active and direct connivance of the US especially as heightened/intensified under the Obama administration onwards (i.e., in continuity with the neocon Bush Jr administration vis-à-vis Gulf War 2);
- the role of neo-Ottoman Turkiye under Erdogan – “coincidental”/overlapping interests with the Zionist entity; and
- the supporting role of the EU as “new player” in the region – in reinforcing the US-led wider Western hegemony (that’s coupled/interlinked with the situation in Ukraine, as pointed out by the eminent academician, policy analyst and activist Professor Dr Jeffrey Sachs).
The original vision of the imperialist Western powers (contained in the Sykes-Picot secret treaty redrawing and remaking of the post-Ottoman Middle East) is now carried through to its “logical conclusion” and ultimate goal by their successor and counterpart in the region as embodied by the Zionist State of Israel – the “reincarnation” of the colonialist presence.
The contemporary reshaping and reconfiguration of the Middle East entails the balkanisation of Syria (as mentioned by experts and commentators) as a key anti-imperialist or Arab nationalist state (especially in reference to the Al-Assad dynastic rule) that stood in the way of Zionist expansionism (and, by extension, the Greater Israel project), among others.
Of course, the pre-conditions for further balkanisation have to be in place first.
Zionist rejectionism pre-Oslo Accords resulted (i.e., the reaction) in the exporting of instability and chaos to Jordan (Black September – the memory of which is “revived” by Trump’s Gaza proposal) which then spread to Lebanon that in turn triggered the inter-sectarian strife culminating in the infamous Sabra and Shatila massacre of Shiite Lebanese (on September 16-18, 1982) by pro-IDF collaborator forces (Phalangists). Its scarring effect continues to reverberate to this today.
The Arabic word for this is “fauda” (literally, “chaos”).
Now, although Syria under the Al-Assad rule was regarded as a stumbling block to Zionist ambitions in the region, the Arab republic per se wasn’t seen as threatening/menacing and dangerous compared to the Islamic Republic of Iran (which also refused to kowtow to the Zionist presence as supported by its big brother, the US).
However, the historic event of October 7 or the “Big Project” inspired and initiated by the late Yahya Sinwar accelerated and intensified the role of Syria as a factor in the multi-front conflict. That is, October 7 increased (as was intended by Yahya Sinwar) the potentiality of an asymmetrical conflict spilling over into a symmetrical warfare of which Syria would inevitably be drawn into and play a crucial part due to the country’s proximity to the Zionist entity.
As highlighted in EMIR Research article, “Putting the two-state solution back on track” (March 6, 2025), Yahya Sinwar’s aim was to refocus regional and global attention back to a definitive resolution and final settlement of the Palestinian question.
And although Yahya Sinwar was a proponent of the one-state solution, the legal position (international law) and mainstream political scenario is that of the two-state solution (which it has to be said does find – some realistic type of – support within the broader Hamas movement, e.g., Deputy Chairman of the Political Bureau Khalil al-Hayya is open to a truce as the reasonable/viable avenue rather than unconditional peace), however unrealistic it is (especially given the “present-day” Zionist attitude together with the expansion of the settler colonialism in the West Bank).
In short, October 7 as the first distinctive precursor/exporter of regional instability (see EMIR Research article, “Netanyahu’s “messianic vision” – be careful what you wish for”, October 16, 2204) in decades happened precisely because Israel is now understood to be either outrightly rejecting the two-state solution in defiance of the will of the international community and the expectation of the Arab countries (see the Arab Peace Initiative/API) or by default purposely (i.e., pro-actively) drifting away thereof.
One thing (fauda/chaos) has led to another (fauda/chaos), so to speak.
The inevitable coupling of the Gaza situation with southern Lebanon under Hezbollah as part of the Axis of Resistance coordination (and “synchronisation”) in the truly multi-front conflict (as in spanning continents vis-à-vis Ukraine) resulted in the Zionist campaign of mayhem and chaos south of the Litani River.
With Hezbollah suffering major constraints in terms of its operational capability due to the Israel Defense Forces (IDF)’s scorched-earth campaign in disrupting the supply and logistical lines of the former, this meant the weakening of the two key Axis of Resistance actors (one as non-state, the other as state) in the north simultaneously, i.e., affecting Syria too (first and second ranks/layers, respectively).
And as Syria was already semi-balkanised/unofficially divided along sectarian lines with the Kurds in the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria/AANES and the main Islamist opposition based in Idlib in the northwest of the country, etc., the then Assad “regime” had been “reeling” from years of internal discord and turmoil.
This is thanks to the US-fueled and funded campaign to destabilise and overthrow Bashar Al-Assad such as Project Timber Sycamore (2012/13) as operated by the CIA which not only supplied weapons but also trained the jihadist operatives.
Post-Assad, the SDF (the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces) with the explicit backing of the US (via CentCom/Central Command) has now signed an agreement on the (re)integration of its – armed and civilian – institutions into the new Syrian “state” (which took place on March 10, 2025).
And with imprisoned Abdullah Ocalan (the longstanding head of the PKK/Kurdistan Workers’ Party as the insurgent Kurdish group in Turkey) calling for reconciliation with Ankara, including disbandment, the Kurdish factor/dynamics in regional geopolitics is shifting, among others.
This adds to the further loss of strategic initiative for the Zionist entity. Israel has historically counted the Kurds (alongside the Druze) as its ally in the region.
How does this fit the balkanisation “narrative”?
Balkanisation would benefit Israel (as the principal root/source of regional instability) but not necessarily Turkey (the other actor – newcomer? – in regional instability) whereby de-balkanisation is better suited (as alluded to in that deal between the AANES and Damascus).
Perhaps there’re some differences/misalignments on and, hence, the extent of the vision for regional balkanisation between Israel and the US (the third key player in regional instability). After all, despite US foreign policy now beholden to Zionist influence, there’d still be some degree of autonomy, to put simply.
For one, the US (as the “big brother”) sees the “broader/wider” picture.
For example, the planned pipeline from Qatar to Turkey (as the gateway to Europe) via Syria would weaken Russia’s geopolitical influence (extension/projection/reach) both in the Eastern Mediterranean (and simultaneously Iran’s also) as well as Southern Europe. In turn, this undermines Israel’s aspiration to become an energy “corridor” in its own right (Gaza comes to mind).
Incidentally, the AANES province is where most of the Syrian oil and gas fields are sited.
Nonetheless, there’s still a possibility that the US (with the consent of Russia) might still carve up Syria along sectarian lines which would please Israel, no less, given the current situation. That is, the on-going genocidal rampage in the Alawite territory as represented by the three main cities of Latakia (port), Jableh (coastal) and Tartous (port) has also precipitated pleas and “revived” the idea for a separate state.
Notwithstanding, the US and the EU are inescapably complicit in the massacre and genocide of Christians and Alawites.
Calling for an emergency UN Security Council (SC) session scheduled on March 17 (Monday) would be useless/futile unless accompanied by concrete measures such as the imposition of a humanitarian corridor by CentCom (which includes the Middle East under its jurisdiction) and supported by Russian forces in Latakia.
Of course, Israel is also guilty in this regard.
It has never weakened HTS or ISIS for that matter (or any other Islamist terrorist groups in Syria) all these years (which would have prevented Assad’s downfall in the first place) – despite unabashedly claiming to be on the forefront of fighting “terror”.
According to Greek MEP Nikolas Farantouris (a member of the European Parliament’s Committee on Security & Defense) who visited Damascus on March 8-9, some 7,000 Christians and Alawites have been slaughtered (so far).
Another Greek MEP, Emmanouil Fragkos, has filed a request for a European Arrest Warrant (EAW) for Al-Sharaa/Al-Golani to the European Public Prosecutor’s Office on March 10.
In addition, the Lead Prosecutor of the International Criminal Court (ICC) Karim Khan should also investigate and request for arrest warrants from the pre-trial judge relating to the principal perpetrators directing the massacre/genocide on the ground (in the initial stage).
Whilst Syria isn’t a party to the Rome Statute (yet), Lead Prosecutor Khan has visited Damascus and Al-Sharaa/Al-Golani has pledged his cooperation and support in pursuing justice for war crimes committed under the previous “regime”.
This means there’s already an implicit binding agreement or, at the very least, groundwork/basis for cooperation with the ICC.
Whether Al-Sharaa/Al-Golani will prove to be intransigent due to his own complicity (direct or indirect), no less, it’s hereby submitted that the ICC should incorporate the “responsibility to protect” (R2P) doctrine into its jurisprudence.
The R2P is already recognised under international law.
If the US and Russia – as (lead) members of the Permanent UNSC (P5) and thereby enforcers of the will of the international community – are supportive of a separate Alawite state (or an Alawite-Christian state), this could provide legal justification for invoking the crime of aggression also(retroactive basis)under the Rome Statute according to Chapter VII of the UN Charter (i.e., the attack by a pre-existing member-state against a prospective applicant).
Better still, the US should step in immediately and act with utmost urgency under the R2P doctrine. After all, there’s already a precedent in Libya (however ill-conceived that was).
On its part, Israel has a moral and legal duty (on humanitarian grounds) to bomb HTS positions in Alawite territory – not just targeting the remaining “chemical and biological” stockpiles and other cache of weapons from the Assad “regime”.
Two wrongs don’t make a right. The EU (as another key sponsor of regional instability) have supported wars (Libya, Syria) that resulted in a refugee crisis emanating from North Africa and the Eastern Mediterranean. Now it’s supporting an interim government comprising of terrorists just on purely ideological grounds (Russophobia) and in the hope of a settlement which would allow the refugees to return home/repatriated.
Lastly, Turkiye should be strongly condemned for failing to stop the massacres and genocide. Turkiye’s pursuit of its “neo-Ottoman” dream comes at the bloody expense of the Shiite communities in the Eastern Mediterranean.
Turkiye should be reminded that the pursuit of its “neo-Ottoman” credentials (which is partly conditioned by its Turkic identity/“supremacy” within the wider ummah) should never supersede or undermine the ultimate goal of the liberation of Palestine (at the very least based on the two-state solution).
It’s hoped that in the coming days, the UNSC and the UN will take concrete action against the on-going genocidal situation in coastal Syria and that the perpetrators from top to bottom will be brought to justice, one way or another, ultimately.
Otherwise, history will only repeat itself.
The instability unfolding in coastal Syria and other parts of the country won’t stop there.
With Gaza (and now the West Bank too), the Eastern Mediterranean is now turned into a hotbed of escalating regional instability.
And we know who to blame.
Jason Loh Seong Wei is Head of Social, Law & Human Rights at EMIR Research, an independent think tank focussed on strategic policy recommendations based on rigorous research.
