Published by Malaysiakini & Sin Chew, images from Malaysiakini.
With 7.9 million voters automatically added to the electoral roll in Malaysia by the next general election, widely expected to be in 2023, those who are 18 years of age will have nearly 50 percent of the electoral power of the current electoral registry, which stands at 14.9 million.
Whether Deputy Defence Minister Liew Chin Tong was referring to the “median point” of these two groups of voters, or, the need to maintain the middle voters to undercut the extremism of Umno and PAS by 2023, the gist of the automatic registration of the youth is indeed a new Malaysia to be decided by a young Malaysia.
Here the demonstrations in Hong Kong are useful, as a gauge. No one in the world gave the high school and university students much of a chance to challenge the Hong Kong government, by extension Beijing.
Yet since June 4, for nine weeks in a row, thousands of Hong Kong students have inspired their parents, teachers, anyone older than them to face the Hong Kong government, eyeball to eyeball. As this is written, the Hong Kong youth and their older generations have refused to budge.
They now want the controversial extradition bill to be withdrawn and governor Carrie Lam to step down.
Indeed, the demonstrators further demanded a full and independent police inquiry on the riot, a clear process to have a free and fair election and more importantly, to free the 44 demonstrators who had been charged.
Unless these demands are met, the protests will spread to civil servants and other sectors of the economy too.
What is happening in Hong Kong isn’t an outlier event. It required strategic planning and concerted effort.
GE15 in 2023 would be more important than the GE14 of 2018, although the stakes of latter would be equally high, if not higher.
Aside from the gleaming towers, Malaysian at the age of 18 would demand four things
- A conditional offer of a job
- Free education
- Affordable housing
- Prospect to be sent abroad for their further tertiary training.
Malaysian youth between the ages of 18 and 25 do want to enjoy the upward mobility of their forebears.
However, Pakatan Harapan can only deliver all of the above, potentially more, only when there is a sincere desire to focus on institution reforms promised in the manifesto too.
The parliamentary select committees, for instance, would have to be given their due weight across the board. Announcement of major figures to lead the MACC would have to be consulted with the parliamentary select committees first, not announced unilaterally.
In turn, if PAS and Umno were to attack Harapan in 2023 wholesale, neither one of them would be facile enough to focus on religion and race alone. They would exploit the vulnerabilities of Harapan in other ways.
Thus the ramifications of the Sino-US trade war, the technology war of the US against companies like Huawei, and the Sino-Korean trade war would form fodder for Umno and PAS to tear Harapan to shreds. They could, as Harapan did promise a better and newer Malaysia.
2023 is the coming of age of the new Malaysia. If young and old voters alike judge Harapan harshly, then the process of a fresh and powerful democratic future would be stillborn.
To begin with, the voting rights exercised by all 22.9 million voters would be based on their net assessment of Harapan’s total performance, not how many BN big fish had been put in jail.
Secondly, even if voters are forgiving enough to give Harapan a golden second chance, the ruling coalition need to groom these some young leaders to be the masters of their own fate.
For the lack of a better word, Harapan does need to embrace and enhance the future of Malaysia.
Starting now, without which a weak electoral mandate of 2023 would see a country being set back once again, not necessarily by kleptocracy but the klepto-theocracy of PAS and Umno, each trying to purportedly use a pseudo version of Islam to capture the state to their own benefits.
Dr. Rais Hussin is President & CEO of EMIR Research, an independent think tank focused on strategic policy recommendations based upon rigorous research.
刊登在：星洲网 (Sin Chew).
当790万名选民自动加入选民册，并参与预计于2023年举行的下一届全国大选时，那些年满18岁的选民，和现有1490万名登记选民比较，人数接近50%。
就算刘镇东上议员称有必要保住中间选民，以削低巫统和伊斯兰党在2023年带来的极端主义，落实自动登记选民的主旨，仍是新大马要由年轻的马来西亚人来决定。
作为一个衡量标准，香港示威值得参考，全世界没有一个地方让高中生、大学生有如此机会去挑战香港政府，甚至是北京。
从6月4日开始，连续9个星期，逾百万名香港学生启发了他们的家长、老师、任何比他们年长的人，去面对香港政府。当我落笔时，香港青年和他们的老一辈，仍拒绝让步。
他们要政府撤回备受争议的逃犯条例（而不是香港特首林郑月娥所使用的字眼寿终正寝），他们也要她辞职，同时还要求成立独立调查委员会查警方滥权、要真普选，最重要的是，他们要求撤销44人被控暴动罪的控状，这些被告一旦罪名成立可判监禁10年。
除非当局回应这些诉求，否则香港的示威活动，将继续蔓延到公务员和其他经济领域。
香港过去9周所发生的事情，并不是一个外面与我们无关的事件，从烈火莫熄、净选盟第一至第五次大集会、2018年5月9日政治海啸推翻了纳吉政府，都不是侥幸得来，它需要战略规划和共同努力。
2023年全国大选比2018年全国大选更重要，因为截至2023年，大马仅剩2年达成先进国的目标，这已比原定时间迟了5年。
除了闪闪发亮的高楼，年满18岁的大马年轻人还会要求4件事：A.录取工作的条件；B.免费教育；C.可负担房屋；D.期待被送往海外接受进阶培训。
这四项要求可分开或合一理解，因为年龄介于18岁至25岁的大马青年，都希望享有向上流动的机会。
无论如何，希望联盟要满足上面的诉求或更多，只能通过落实它在竞选宣言内承诺的体制改革。
举例说，国会遴选委员会，应获得重视，宣布大马反贪会新领导人时，应和国会遴选委员会商议，而不是单方面宣布。
反过来，如果伊斯兰党和巫统要在2023年攻击希盟，当中任何一党都不会轻易专注于宗教和种族，而是会通过其他途径攻击希盟弱点，例如希盟描绘的美好景象，但没落实宣言内容，这些都会成为反对党的攻击。
加上中美贸易战、美国对垒电讯公司如华为的科技战争、中韩贸易战，还有越来越激烈的中美地缘政治和经济斗争等所引起的后果，都可让伊斯兰党和巫统，将希盟撕裂成碎片。
他们可以同样效仿希盟，许诺一个更好更新的大马，而希盟则没有预测到中美竞争，已经迫在眉睫。
2023年是新马来西亚的时代，如果年轻和旧选民选择严厉地惩罚希盟，则一个新且强大的民主未来，会胎死腹中。
首先，2290万名选民评估希盟的表现，是根据希盟整体的表现，而不是多少条国阵大鱼锒铛入狱。
即便选民很宽容地给予希盟第二次黄金机会，希盟也需要培养一些年轻领导人，他们需要去竞选公职。
在没有更好的形容词下，希盟从现在开始就需要去改善和提升大马的未来，否则2023年没再次获得选民托付，我们会看到国家倒退，不一定是重复盗贼统治，而是伊斯兰党和巫统的盗贼-政教合一（klep-theocracy），都是试图使用伪装版的伊斯兰，通过国家来获取各自的利益。
莱斯福贤是EMIR Research的总裁兼首席执行官，EMIR Research是一个独立的智囊团，专注于根据严格的研究提出战略政策建议。
