Published by Malaysiakini & Sin Chew, images from Malaysiakini.
The whole goal of being in politics is to be in power.
In Malaysia, small as it is in terms of population, the people involved in the political arena have taken politics beyond the threshold of what can now be known as the never-ending ‘Game of Thrones’ over who will be the next prime minister.
The irony is that this was known before the 14th general election that it would be the chink in Pakatan Harapan’s armour going into battle with the then-formidable BN, especially Umno.
Therefore, all key members of Harapan, without fail, named Anwar Ibrahim as the prime minister-in-waiting, once Dr Mahathir Mohamad became the prime minister – as the latter himself preferred then and prefers now.
For the lack of a better term, the politics of Harapan should not have had to experience what one is witnessing now in Malaysia, with the economic affairs minister taking the charge of the light brigade to go against his own party president.
There are five strategic dangers to be wary of with the perpetual quest for the office of the prime minister, will upend New Malaysia as we know it, playing in the background.
First and foremost, former prime minister Najib Abdul Razak (photo) is biding for time. He has even returned as the chairperson of the BN advisory board.
Even Umno president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi has resurfaced from his garden leave. In other words, the proverbial heads of snakes can still bite, even when detached from their bodies.
BN and PAS are looming large. They don’t even have to do anything concrete and serious to gain electoral support come the 15th general election.
Harapan can be thoroughly defeated, which will allow the kleptocrats and their ilk to make a quick comeback and deliver a coup de grâce against what Malaysians voted for last May – a clean and competent government.
Second, Malaysia has a bureaucracy of some 1.5 million civil servants across the thirteen states. They should be nonpartisan and have sworn to be nonpartisan.
But when the Harapan government cannot operate in tandem with what has been promised to the people, or in accordance with the election manifesto, then the civil servants will not ride above the parapet to serve the people.
They will watch at the sidelines, quietly, perhaps sheepishly, to find out who will win the ‘Game of Thrones’ first before deciding to work. In other words, this will not only legitimise these civil servants’ seeing, hearing and saying no evil, but will render them dysfunctionally neutral.
This is turn will lead to self-inflicted harm on the political economy of Malaysia. There are more than 900 GLCs that command up to 70 percent of the equities or financial weight in the Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange (KLSE).
When the civil service does not work actively to enhance the welfare of the people, the GLCs cannot work in tandem with the government to produce the necessary deliverables.
The net outcome is a slow paralysis of ‘Malaysia Inc’, where corporate fat cats who have already cashed out prior to the conclusion of the last general election just need to wait for the government to collapse so that the wheel of fortune can turn again to their favourite group of politicians.
Perpetual one-upmanship
Fourth, if the never-ending ‘Game of Thrones’ continues unabated, with or without any reference to the sex video – which has been proven to be authentic by the inspector-general of police himself – international investors would prefer to place their bets on and in other countries.
Cambodia and Laos are two of the fastest rising economies in Southeast Asia with a growth rate of 6.9 and 7.1 percent respectively. Their currencies are semi-pegged to the US dollar, and their financial backers are China. Why should the international business community take Malaysia seriously?
They won’t when there is a perpetual game of one-upmanship to dethrone Anwar, the anointed successor of Mahathir.
Finally, the supporters of the never-ending ‘Game of Thrones’ are bound to lose all if they are throwing all their lot with Azmin.
The economic base of Azmin is in Selangor. Unlike the days of Abdul Khalid Ibrahim, the former menteri besar who built up the Selangor coffers, no one knows how much the state government still possesses.
For all that we know, Selangor may be taking on water, which explains why the Malaysian economy seems to be sputtering to a stop, as 25 percent of the GDP is from the state.
Malaysian politics cannot be completely dis-entangled from economics, which is why all sides want to be the top dogs in the government.
But if rabies has set in – manifested in wanting to take a big bite out of everyone, including the party president – then the signs are not healthy that they will be able to lead Malaysia.
Then, the blame of ruining the New Malaysia will be on these dogs of war.
Dr. Rais Hussin is President & CEO of EMIR Research, an independent think tank focused on strategic policy recommendations based upon rigorous research.
刊登在：星洲网 (Sin Chew).
预料之中（par for the course）这字眼也许源自高尔夫球游戏，但它同样是不成文的政治规则，即参政的最终目标就是要掌权。马来西亚参政的人已将政治带至另一阶段，变成永无止境的权力游戏。谁会是下一任首相？
权力游戏讽刺之处在于，在第14届大选之前，立法者和具有抱负的政治人物皆认为，希望联盟不足以对抗当时仍强大的国阵，特别是巫统，因此，所有希盟主要成员皆同意一旦敦马哈迪成为首相后，提名安华为未来首相，至今后者仍是马哈迪属意的人选。
在没有更好的形容词下，希盟政治不应该经历目前在大马所发生的事情，经济事务部长阿兹敏率领一支队伍，向自己的党主席发难。
目前有5个危机，可能颠覆我们所知道的新大马，首先是最重要的，前首相纳吉正伺机而动，他甚至回归成为国阵顾问，而前副首相阿末扎希，也重新领导巫统。换言之，众所周知的蛇头并不会因被砍去躯体而丧命，相反还可以咬人和释出致命的毒液。
国阵和巫统，加上伊斯兰党，变得更大，他们不用做任何具体和认真的事，即便是一个平庸的反对党，也可以在第15届大选获得支持，而希盟，可被彻底打败，让盗贼和其同伙回归。
第二，大马拥有150万名公务员，横跨联邦13个州属，他们应该无党派，及宣誓成为无党派者，但当希盟政府无法兑现对人民的诺言时，公务员不会无惧地为民服务，他们在旁静静地观察，猜想谁会在这权力游戏中胜出，才开始思考、工作。
换句话说，永无止境的权力游戏，不仅让公务员非礼勿视、非礼勿听及非礼勿言，也让他们失去中立。
第三，失去中立的公共服务，可能对大马政治经济带来自我伤害。逾900家政府相关投资公司占据吉隆坡证券交易所70%数额，当公务服务领域没积极提升人民福祉时，则政府相关公司无法和政府一致合作，产出必要的成果。
最终的结果将是大马公司逐渐瘫痪，那些在上届大选前已出走的企业肥猫，仅需要等待时机看政府倒台，以让幸运财富之轮再带领他们转向喜爱的政治群体，再度喂养他们。
第四，如果永无止境的权力游戏继续有增无减，不论是否和已被全国总警长证实内容属实的性爱视频有关，国际投资者更愿意押注在其他国家上。
柬埔寨和寮国是东南亚两个经济发展最快的国家，经济成长分别是6.9%和7.1%，他们的货币和美元适度挂钩，经济背后靠山也是中国，那为何国际商界要重视大马？
当持续有要废除安华成为首相马哈迪继任者的权力游戏出现，国际投资者不会来大马。
最后，永无止境权力游戏的支持者，如果孤掷一注在阿兹敏身上，最终可能失去一切。阿兹敏的经济基地在雪州，和前雪州大臣卡立当年大大提升州内储备金不同，目前没人知道雪州政府还有多少钱。
所有人都知道，雪州政府目前也自身难保，这同时说明了为何大马经济停滞不前，因为25%国内生产总值（GDP）源自雪州。
大马政治不能完全脱离经济，这就是为何各方都想要成为政府中的佼佼者，但如果有狂犬进入的迹象，想要咬大家一口，包括自党的党主席，这不是健康的现象。他们要承担起破坏新大马的罪名，名副其实的战争祸源。新大马谨记。
莱斯福贤是EMIR Research的总裁兼首席执行官，EMIR Research是一个独立的智囊团，专注于根据严格的研究提出战略政策建议。
