Published by Malay Mail & Malaysiakini, images from Malaysiakini.
An A rating from the Fitch credit rating agency, at any given time, should be lauded. But credit rating agencies do get things wrong. Often badly.
Prior to the Asian Financial Crisis in 1997-1998, for instance, all credit rating agencies such as Fitch, Standards and Poor’s and Moody’s, proceeded to give a thumbs up to the entire East Asian region, with the exception of Cambodia, Myanmar, Laos and Vietnam then.
Yet, when their analysis came all unhinged, all three credit rating agencies had to switch their assessment completely. Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, and even, South Korea, received an instant downgrade on their economic worthiness.
China was an exception as the Chinese Ren Min Bi was not widely traded in the international market yet.
It was still in the thick of an infrastructure boom that ended only in 2013, when surplus production in steel, cement and the such, finally compelled Beijing to launch the Belt and Road Initiative in October 2013; first in Astana in Kazakhstan, followed by Jakarta in November 2013.
The moral of the above story is simple: credit rating agencies cannot be trusted, as the key navigator to steer the macro or micro-economy of Malaysia.
What is A now will mean nothing next week, if God forbid, there should be a super spreader event in the numerous Covid-19 outbreaks beyond what Malaysia has currently withstood.
Indeed, one should remember that by early February 2020, the whole world merely had a little over 87,000 cases of Covid-19, 85 percent of which were in China, especially the city of Wuhan.
By the end of March, the epicentre of the pandemic — which could become endemic if seasonality and warm weather are not the defining factors to stop the trajectory of the SARS Cov II virus —- had shifted to the US.
As this is written, some 10.8 million American workers had filed for unemployment benefits; all within a spate of less than three weeks since the outbreak of Covid-19 in various parts of the US continental mainland.
Malaysia’s Finance Ministry should not steer the country on the basis of credit ratings for two other reasons too.
To begin with, Moody’s had also given the kleptocratic administration of former prime minister Najib Abdul Razak a super optimistic assessment in February 2017 too. CIMB was one of the co-sponsors of the conference with Moody’s.
Three months later, the BN government under Najib suffered an ignominious defeat.
Second, positive ratings are often given on the basis of the assets possessed by the government-linked investment companies and government-linked companies.
Unless Fitch rating has done a full bookkeeping of all these entities, it is impossible for Fitch rating to know how Malaysia can reach a gross domestic growth rate of 5.8 percent by 2021.
Such a growth rate would imply successful handling of the Covid-19 pandemic, not just within Malaysia, but across the region without fail. But to date, no one knows if India, for that matter, if parts of Indonesia, may be further compromised by the spectre of Covid-19.
If the worst-case scenario does come true, in India, and Indonesia, there is no telling that the prices of palm oil of Malaysia will shoot up. After all, if India is down, together with key parts of Indonesia too, where would Malaysia be selling their palm oil to?
European Union (EU) has 26 member states, of which France and Germany are expected to enter a recession this year and the next, if not already. South Korea, China and Japan may face the second or third wave of Covid-19.
In South Korea alone, up to 50 percent of the patients who had recovered from Covid-19, have found themselves to be tested positive again.
To be blunt, there are many unknown in the post-Covid-19 era whether in 2020 or beyond.
The last thing any government should do is to operate on the basis of the unknown, and the politics of ingratiation; where the western credit rating agencies seek to please the government of the day in order to gain further access into the inner sanctum of the Prime Minister or the office of the Finance Minister.
As Khalifah Abu Bakar (may peace be upon him) once said: “Chastise me if I err for that is your obligation.” Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin had always affirmed that he is the sort of leader to “take the bull by the horn.”
In the era of Covid-19, one should not be lulled by internal or external agencies to lull Malaysia into sheer complacency.
Dr. Rais Hussin is President & CEO of EMIR Research, an independent think tank focused on strategic policy recommendations based on rigorous research.
Diterbitkan oleh Malaysiakini, gambar-gambar daripada Malaysiakini.
Penarafan A- yang diberikan oleh agensi penarafan kredit Fitch terhadap Malaysia boleh dipuji. Namun penarafan agensi kredit ini boleh menjadi salah, dan selalunya terpesong sama sekali.
Sebagai contoh, sebelum Krisis Kewangan Asia pada 1997 dan 1998, kesemua agensi penarafan kredit seperti Fitch, Standard & Poor’s dan Moody’s memberikan gambaran positif kepada seluruh rantau Asia Timur kecuali Kemboja, Myanmar, Laos dan Vietnam.
Namun apabila analisis mereka dilihat negatif, ketiga-tiga agensi ini menukar penilaian mereka sepenuhnya. Penarafan terhadap ekonomi Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia dan Korea Selatan mengalami penurunan dengan serta-merta.
Pada ketika itu, China dikecualikan kerana mata wangnya tidak diperdagangkan di pasaran antarabangsa. Negara itu masih berada dalam era ekonomi infrastruktur yang berakhir pada 2013, apabila lebihan pengeluaran bahan mentah seperti keluli dan simen memaksa Beijing melancarkan inisiatif Belt & Road (BRI) pada oktober tahun itu; bermula di Astana, Kazakhstan, disusuli Jakarta sebulan kemudian.
Moral daripada ringkasan di atas adalah mudah; agensi penarafan kredit tidak boleh dipercayai sebagai penentu arah untuk memacu ekonomi makro mahupun mikro di Malaysia.
Penarafan A- yang diberikan mungkin tidak bermakna pada minggu depan, jika – harapnya tidak – terdapat penularan wabak Covid-19 secara luar biasa, yang melampaui jangkaan terhadap keadaan semasa di Malaysia.
Harus diingat bahawa pada awal Februari 2020 lalu, terdapat 87,000 kes Covid-19 di seluruh dunia, dan 85 peratus daripadanya berlaku di China, terutamanya di bandar Wuhan.
Menjelang akhir Mac 2020, kemuncak pandemik telah beralih ke Amerika Syarikat (AS).
Ketika rencana ini sedang ditulis, lebih kurang 10.8 juta pekerja AS telah memfailkan faedah pengangguran. Ia berlaku dalam masa kurang tiga minggu sejak wabak Covid-19 mendarat di negara itu.
Tiada kepastian dapat dijangka
Kementerian Kewangan Malaysia tidak boleh mengemudi negara berdasarkan penarafan kredit ini atas dua sebab.
Sebagai permulaan, Moody’s juga memberi penarafan yang optimis terhadap pentadbiran kleptokrasi bekas perdana menteri Najib Razak pada Februari 2017. CIMB merupakan salah satu penaja bersama persidangan dengan Moody’s. Tiga bulan kemudian, kerajaan Najib mengalami kekalahan yang memalukan.
Kedua, penarafan positif sering diberikan berdasarkan aset yang dimiliki oleh syarikat pelaburan berkaitan kerajaan (GLIC) dan syarikat berkaitan kerajaan (GLC).
Kecuali jika Fitch telah melakukan audit menyeluruh ke atas semua entiti yang disebutkan, mustahil untuk agensi itu mengetahui bagaimana Malaysia boleh mencapai kadar pertumbuhan domestik kasar sebanyak 5.8 peratus pada tahun 2021.
Kadar pertumbuhan sedemikian bermakna negara berjaya mengendalikan Covid-19 bukan hanya di Malaysia tetapi di rantau ini juga, tanpa gagal. Namun setakat ini, tiada siapa yang tahu jika India dan juga jika sebahagian daripada Indonesia mungkin akan dilanda wabak itu dengan lebih teruk lagi.
Jika senario terburuk di India dan Indonesia berlaku, tidak ada jaminan bahawa harga minyak sawit Malaysia akan meningkat. Lagipun, jika India dan sebahagian besar Indonesia terjejas, di mana Malaysia ingin menjual minyak kelapa sawitnya?
Kesatuan Eropah (EU) mempunyai 26 negara anggota, dengan Perancis dan Jerman dijangka memasuki zaman kemelesetan ekonomi pada tahun ini. Malah dua negara itu mungkin telah memasukinya.
Pada masa sama, Korea Selatan, China dan Jepun mungkin menghadapi gelombang kedua atau ketiga Covid-19.
Di Korea Selatan, hampir 50 peratus pesakit yang telah pulih daripada Covid-19 dilaporkan mengalami jangkitan semula virus itu.
Secara kasar, tiada kepastian yang dapat dijangkakan dalam era selepas Covid-19, sama ada pada 2020 mahupun tahun-tahun mendatang.
Perkara terakhir yang perlu dilakukan oleh kerajaan adalah untuk mengambil langkah berdasarkan asas yang tidak diketahui dan “politik kipas” – di mana agensi penarafan kredit dari Barat berusaha untuk menggembirakan kerajaan hari ini demi mendapat akses lebih lanjut dalam kerajaan, menerusi perdana menteri atau pejabat Menteri Kewangan.
Saidina Abu Bakar pernah berkata: “Hukumlah aku jika aku sesat kerana itu kewajipan kamu”. Perdana Menteri Muhyiddin Yassin sentiasa mengatakan bahawa beliau merupakan pemimpin yang “membujur lalu melintang patah”.
Dalam era Covid-19, kita tidak boleh membiarkan agensi dalam atau luar negara menghanyutkan Malaysia ke arah kelekaan ekoran penarafan yang diberikan.
Dr. Rais Hussin merupakan Presiden & CEO EMIR Research, sebuah organisasi pemikir bebas yang berfokuskan kepada pencernaan saranan-saranan dasar strategik berteraskan penyelidikan yang terperinci, konsisten dan menyeluruh.
