Published by EMIR Research, image from Malay Mail.
Malaysia is entering the second wave of Covid-19 where the number of cases has skyrocketed from only 22 patients to over a hundred of them in just two weeks.
Owing to this, is it now the right time for the government to employ much extreme measures than the current one, such as by closing down every public place like school, government facilities and mall?
Undeniably, Covid-19 is a very infectious disease despite its low mortality rate and has spread vigorously across the globe. But, is it serious enough for us to have such an extreme measure?
The current information on Covid-19 published by our Ministry of Health (MOH) stated that as of 10th of November, there is 158 confirmed patients, with most of them related to patient-26 and patient-33.
Patient-26 is the first spreader in Malaysia that had attended numerous functions before his case was confirmed. MOH has traced his contacts and found out 215 people had been in contact with patient-26.
As for patient-33, he attended the meeting with patient-26 where he might contract the virus, and MOH has identified 132 closed contacts.
So far, most of the cases have an identifiable source of infection, and MOH is doing their best in contact tracing the potential patient to prevent them from roaming in the public.
Compare to other countries or region, we have done a relatively good job in stopping the spread. Which is why we should not be closing down schools and other public places because this would be an overreaction.
Currently, there are eight countries other than China with over a thousand patients – Italy, Iran, South Korea, France, Spain, Germany, the United States, and Japan (including patients on the cruise ship).
These eight countries have employed similar strategies in the effort of curbing the spread of Covid-19. Such strategies are by banning or limiting the number of people flying in and out of the country, asking citizens to not participate in public events and closing down the school.
Albeit some of the countries in that list have employed or considering a much serious measure to fight the disease, they also have their justification in doing so.
Italy has closed down the entire country just before their number of patients reaches ten thousands, and their death toll going past the six hundred mark. This is because they want to stop the virus from leaving the country and spread to other countries.
South Korea despite being the country with the greatest number of patients outside of China in Asia, has yet to close its border. However, it has been considering the possibility of locking down the city of Daegu which is where most of the patients are located.
Indeed, this move is effective as without this measure, the spread will worsen and get out of control. Some of the heavily impacted nations now are the result of the lack of effort in tackling this issue at the early stage.
For example, Italy at the start of the outbreak has been dismissive towards the outbreak. Even until the virus started to spread in Italy, some of their lawmakers are still in denial until now.
Thus, it would seem reasonable for us to have a more serious measure to curb the spread.
However, the negative impact of the strategy might also be very serious for us to deal with in the future.
Closing down school would mean that we will have to defer the syllabus of the current study. This will not only affect the students especially those who will be sitting in government examination but also their parents.
Most of the family today is a dual-earner family which means they do not have the time to take care of their children. Although they can still send their children to the daycare center, it will cost them extra expenses which might become a burden to them.
Closing down public places on the other hand would bring a negative impact to our already weak economy.
Although the government has decided to continue on the Economic Stimulus Package, it might not be enough to mitigate the burden of many people and businesses if the government decides to close down public places.
The small and medium enterprises (SME) especially those that focus on tourism will take an even bigger hit as international tourism has come to a halt. Closing public place and discouraging local tourism will cause SME to lose more businesses, and they might even need to shut down because the stimulus package cannot cover the expenses as they do not have any income.
All this would result in business being shut down, the unemployment rate will be increased and people purchasing power will decrease.
However, as the World Health Organization (WHO) has, for the first time, used the word ‘pandemic’ to describe Covid-19, it might be the right time for extreme measures to take place.
Furthermore, all patients in our neighboring country Brunei have been reported to have attended one of the religious events held at a mosque here that allegedly involve over ten thousand peoples in Malaysia.
Arguably, not all ten thousands of them are from Malaysia as there are some foreigners in the cluster. But still, most of the participants are from Malaysia and it is too much for MOH to trace them down.
And now, our strategy to deal with the group of participants is solely to rely on them going to the district health department. If they choose not to, the government cannot do anything.
It would seem that a spike in Covid-19 patients is unavoidable, and the extreme measure seems to be the only viable way to stop the disease from spreading further. Of course, there needs to be another compensation plan for the people.
The government has yet to announce any further plan to combat Covid-19. The only thing that we can do for now is to follow the current instruction given by MOH – wash your hand frequently, wear a mask if you are feeling unwell, avoid gathering and practice social distancing.
Nurafifah Mohammad Suhaimi and Chia Chu Hang are part of the research team at EMIR Research, an independent think tank focused on strategic policy recommendations based on rigorous research.
